Category: Market Outlook

[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDHbneDbdeE[/embedyt]

Today’s Action

Benchmark indices continued its yesterday’s action. Nifty, +1.8%, Sensex, +1.8%, Model Portfolio, 0%; MSI Ind 47, +1.9%.

Daily Market Review

The Nifty and the Sensex posted record gains in today’s session since November. Investors have welcomed the decision of quick appointment of RBI governor. Factors such as Asian markets trading higher and the ending of election uncertainty pushed the Indian market higher.

On the sectoral front, all the indices managed to post gains. Nifty Realty (+4.4%) and Nifty Auto (+3.6%) gained the most. Hero Motocorp (+7.2%) and Indiabulls Housing Finance (+6.0%) were the major gainers whereas Dr Reddy (-4.8%) and Bharti Infratel (-1.0%) were the losers among Nifty50 stocks.

The Nifty Midcap and Smallcap were up 2.6% and 3.0%, respectively.

The advance-decline ratio was in favor of advancers. Of the 2,063 stocks traded on the NSE, 1,418 advanced, 317 declined, and 328 remained unchanged.

Market status remains unchanged at an {Uptrend Under Pressure}. We will change the status to a Downtrend, if 2-3 more distribution days are added. The market will be moved to a Confirmed Uptrend if the Nifty retakes 10,942 level (high during the recent rally).

Stocks in News

NBCC Ltd: The Company has received a letter of award (LoA) from the Indian Government to construct an office building (Kaushal Bhawan) at New Delhi. The stock rose 4.3% today.

Ashok Leyland: The Company has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Israeli Elbit systems. As part of the agreement, Ashok Leyland will provide vehicles for mounting Elbit system’s artillery guns. The stock was up 1.9% today.

Today’s Action

Benchmark indices recovered after opening in red. Nifty, +0.6%, Sensex, +0.5%, Model Portfolio, 0%; MSI Ind 47, +2.3%.

Daily Market Review

The Nifty and the Sensex posted gains in today’s session. The Indian market opened in red but recovered the loss and ended in green despite RBI governor’s resignation and BJP trailing Congress in state election results.

On the sectoral front, all the indices managed to post gains. Nifty PSU Bank (+2.7%) and Nifty Pharma (2.5%) gained the most. Yesbank (+7.4%) and Sunpharma (+5.8%) were the major gainers whereas Hindustan petroleum (-2.9%) and Indian Oil corporation (-1.8%) were the losers among Nifty50 stocks.

The Nifty Midcap and Smallcap are up 1.7% and 1.8%, respectively.

The advance-decline ratio was in favor of advancers. Of the 2,059 stocks traded on the NSE, 1,249 advanced, 454 declined, and 356 remained unchanged.

The market status has been changed to an {Uptrend Under Pressure} owing to the distribution on bourses. Yesterday, the market witnessed a huge sell-off on higher volume, leading to a distribution day on the Nifty. With that, the distribution day count stands at four on both the Nifty and the Sensex. As the market condition has changed to an Uptrend Under Pressure, investors should proceed ahead with caution. Unless a stock shows exceptional fundamental and technical strength, no new addition to the portfolio is advised.

Stocks in News

Bharti Airtel: The General Tax Directorate of Niger ordered for the closure of company’s offices in Nigeria over a tax dispute. The stock was down 1.6% today.

Cadila Healthcare: Liva pharmaceuticals, a subsidiary of Cadila Healthcare, received approval from USFDA for ulcer treatment injection Ranitidine Injection USP. The stock was up 1.5% today.

Market Pulse

Confirmed Uptrend

Weekly Action

The Nifty and the Sensex were down on three days during the week: Nifty, -1.7%; Sensex, -1.4%; Nifty Midcap, -2.6%; Nifty Smallcap, -2.6%; Model Portfolio, +2.4%; and MSI Ind 47, -1.9%.

Weekly Market Review

The Nifty lost its key support of 200-DMA and ended 0.5% below it. However, it is trading 1.1% above its 50-DMA. The Nifty breaching its support at 200-DMA line indicates that the market is losing its momentum. This week, Nifty IT (+0.2%) was the only gainer whereas Nifty Pharma (-6.4%) and Auto (-4.3%) were the worst performers.

FIIs and DIIs were net sellers as they dumped stocks worth Rs 48.12 crore and Rs 2,509.20 crore, respectively, for the first four days of this week.

With respect to direction, the Indian market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The distribution day count stands at three on the Nifty and four on the Sensex. More distribution days in the upcoming sessions will downgrade the market status to an Uptrend Under Pressure. Considering this, we would suggest adopting an investment approach where you begin with a small allocation and increase it as and when market demonstrates technical strength. On the other hand, investors should be prepared to cut their position in case the market starts to show recurring distribution days and technical weakness.

In the coming week, the following events could move the market:

• December 11: State election results

• December 12: CPI for November, IIP data for October

• December 14: WPI for November