Weekly Big Picture – Geopolitical Tensions and SEBI Curbs on Alleged Shell Companies Put Market in Reverse Gear

MarketSmith India _ Weekly Big Picture.

MARKET PULSE

Status: Uptrend Under Pressure

Current Outlook:

– Be cautious with any new purchases.

– Make a defensive game plan for your portfolio.

– Stay disciplined and exercise sound sell rules.

Highlights:

Five down days

Weekly Market Review

The benchmark indices ended the first day of the week on a subdued note as SEBI announced trading restrictions on 331 entities suspected to be shell companies. On Tuesday, the selling pressure accentuated further due to the SEBI action. On Wednesday, there was no respite for the market, as North Korea’s warning on a possible missile strike on the U.S. Pacific territory of Guam, spooked the global markets. The market weakness continued as the key indices continued to slide on Thursday and Friday. The broader indices had a devastating day, when the Nifty Midcap and the Smallcap indices tanked 3.20% and 4.62%, respectively, in yesterday’s session.

The Nifty started the week at 10,074.80 and traded in the range of 9,685.55-10,088.10. The index finally closed at 9,710.80, down 3.53% from last Friday’s close.

After opening at 32,377.80 points, the Sensex gave away 3.44% this week to close at 31,213.59. During the week, the Sensex traded in a range of 31,128.02-32,396.14.

The Nifty and the Sensex have picked up three and two distribution days, respectively, during the week. The distribution day count for the Nifty and the Sensex currently stand at 5.0 and 6.0, respectively. The headline indices are currently trading more than 4% off their all-time highs. In view of the deteriorating technical set-up, we changed the market status from “Confirmed Uptrend” to “Uptrend Under Pressure” yesterday.

The broader markets underperformed the frontline indices this week; the Nifty Midcap and Smallcap indices lost 5.47% and 6.52%, respectively.

The MarketSmith IND 47 Index, which lists the top 47 stocks in chart and fundamental characteristics, lost 5.84%, this week.

The sectoral chart is awash in a sea of red for the week, as none of the sectors managed to escape the brunt of the market sell-off. The top three losers this week were Nifty Realty, PSU Bank, and Pharma with declines of 9.16%, 8.57%, and 7.95%, respectively.

The first ever mid-term economic survey that was tabled in the Parliament today, has pointed to downside risks to the government’s earlier GDP growth forecast of 6.75-7.50% for FY 2018. Since the first volume of the survey was published in February this year, new factors such as real exchange rate appreciation, farm loan waivers, increasing stress in the power and telecom sectors, and transitional challenges from implementing the GST have imparted a deflationary bias to the economic activity in the country. The survey, authored by Chief Economic Adviser, Arvind Subramanian, has also mentioned that inflation was expected to remain below the RBI’s 4% target through the end of the fiscal year.

State Bank of India beat analysts’ expectations, as it reported a nearly three-fold jump in its consolidated profit at INR 3,032 crore for the quarter ending June 2017, but asset quality, including that of subsidiaries, continued to slip. Gross non-performing assets increased 86 basis points to 9.97%, and net NPA rose 78 basis points to 5.97% on a sequential basis. The growth in profit was driven by low base due to higher provisions in Q1 FY 2017 and partly by higher other income despite a sharp rise in tax expenses.

The following events could serve as market movers in the coming week:

– Release of the Consumer Price Index inflation data for the month of July on August 14.

– Minutes of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting in July 2017 to be released on August 16.

To Read Detailed Reports including Stock Recommendations, Idea Lists, Evaluate Stocks etc. Subscribe to  MarketSmith India

 

Weekly Big Picture – Benchmark Indices Extend Gains; Sensex Picks up Two Distribution Days

MarketSmith India _ Weekly Big Picture.MARKET PULSE

Status: Confirmed Uptrend

Highlights:

Three up days, two down days

Weekly Market Review

The benchmark indices managed to move higher after the gains made during the last week. Both, the Sensex and the Nifty started on a positive note on Monday after rallying over 0.60% each. On Tuesday, even as both the headline indices advanced higher, the Sensex’s gain was muted, at 0.19% compared with 0.37% for the Nifty. Both the indices registered their respective all-time closing highs on Tuesday. The Sensex picked up distribution days on Wednesday and Thursday, while the Nifty added one to its tally yesterday. The indices closed for the week with modest gains in today’s session. Continue reading “Weekly Big Picture – Benchmark Indices Extend Gains; Sensex Picks up Two Distribution Days”

Weekly Big Picture – Benchmark Indices Make Record Highs; Financials Lead the Rally

MarketSmith India _ Weekly Big PictureMARKET PULSE

Status: Confirmed Uptrend

Highlights:

Two up days, three down days

 Weekly Market Review

 The benchmark indices continued their winning streak from last week. Both the Sensex and the Nifty started on a positive note on Monday after rallying more than 0.50% each. On Tuesday, the Nifty crossed the 10K mark intraday, but failed to hold the momentum and ended up in red. The Nifty observed its all-time highs on Wednesday after it closed above the 10K level. The expiry of F&O on Thursday observed some distribution in the Nifty, as a result of which the index traded flat, while the Sensex made an all-time high. Continue reading “Weekly Big Picture – Benchmark Indices Make Record Highs; Financials Lead the Rally”

Weekly Big Picture – Benchmark Indices Eke Out Gains; ITC Derails Nifty’s Journey to 10K

MarketSmith India _ Weekly Big Picture.MARKET PULSE

Status: Confirmed Uptrend

 Highlights:

Three up days, two down days

Weekly Market Review

The Indian market started on a positive note on Monday, as the market continued its momentum from last week. The benchmark indices scaled new all-time highs, and also registered fresh closing highs on Monday. On Tuesday, the key indices fell, as the market heavyweight ITC dropped more than 12%, after the GST council decided to increase the cess on cigarettes. After Tuesday, the market has witnessed a fight between the bulls and the bears, as the market seesawed between gains and losses on the remaining days of the week. Finally, by the close of the week, the key indices are within touching distance of their record highs registered on Monday. Continue reading “Weekly Big Picture – Benchmark Indices Eke Out Gains; ITC Derails Nifty’s Journey to 10K”

Weekly Big Picture – Benchmark Indices Scale All-time highs; Record Best Weekly Gain in Four Months

MarketSmith India _ Weekly Big Picture

MARKET PULSE

Status: Confirmed Uptrend

 Highlights:

Four up days, one down day

 Weekly Market Review

The benchmark indices extended gains from last week in a record setting spree, this week. Both, the Sensex and the Nifty marked all-time highs on Monday, after rallying over 1% each. The indices held on to the positive zone with small increments on Tuesday and Wednesday, thereby extending their highs. Heavy accumulation in Thursday’s session, helped amass a weekly gain of over 2%. However, the benchmark indices snapped from their winning streak to post marginal losses, likely due to profit booking, in today’s session. Despite one down day, the key indices recorded their best weekly gain in the last four months. Continue reading “Weekly Big Picture – Benchmark Indices Scale All-time highs; Record Best Weekly Gain in Four Months”