Daily Big Picture: A Silver Lining is seen as Government Announces 1.7 Lakh Crore Relief Funds

Today’s Action

Nifty, +3.9%; Sensex, +4.9%; Nifty Midcap, +3.4%; Nifty Smallcap, +3.2%; Model Portfolio, 0%

Daily Market Review

Market Pulse:Rally Attempt

Nifty extended its gains for the third consecutive trading session and advanced more than 13% after suffering its worst single day fall on Monday. Volume was on the higher side as against yesterday’s session. Breadth has improved slightly, with 39 of the 50 Nifty stocks closing in the green. Further, today’s action qualified as day three of an attempted rally. So, we are changing the market status to a Rally Attempt from a Downtrend. Tomorrow opens the window for a follow-through day on Nifty. If we advance 1.5% or more on volume that is higher than today, we will change the status to a Confirmed Uptrend. Ideally the follow-through day should occur between the fourth and the seventh day. The follow through days that occur after the 10th day are more likely to fail.

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Daily Big Picture: Financial Stocks Shine as Nifty improves

Today’s Action

Nifty, +6.6%; Sensex, +7%; Nifty Midcap, +3.3%; Nifty Smallcap, +3.3%; Model Portfolio, 0%

Daily Market Review

Market Pulse :“Downtrend”

Nifty traded constructively after a negative opening forming higher highs on the hourly chart and closed the day near 8,300, posting significant gains. Volume was like yesterday’s session. Breadth has improved slightly, with 38 of the 50 Nifty stocks closing in the green. Reliance Industries (+14.7%), Hdfc Bank (+11.6%), and Kotak Mahindra Bank(Nse) (+11.9%) were the top gainers on Nifty. Further, today’s action qualified as day two of an attempted rally.

On the sectoral front, all the sectoral indices closed in the green. Nifty FinService (+9.7%) gained the most followed by Nifty PVT Bank and Nifty Bank, which gained 8.5% and 8.4%, respectively. The advance-decline ratio was in favor of advancers. Of 2,115 stocks traded, 1063 advanced, 703 declined, and the remaining traded flat.

We continue to suggest a cautious approach until the general market conditions improve. Most of the stocks continue to incur technical damage, with many moving deeper into their respective bases and breaking below logical levels of support. Without trying to predict and decode stories, we will take what the market gives us and continue to monitor unfolding conditions. We will continue to monitor quality ideas with rising relative strength lines and superior fundamentals that could be set up to buy when and if the market begins to stabilize.

Key News

Indian crude oil production declined 6.4% to 2.39M tonnes in February versus 2.56M tonnes in the year-ago period.

U.S. lawmakers and Trump administration officials have agreed on an agreement on an estimated $2T economic stimulus bill, aiming at shielding the U.S. economy from the repercussions of the coronavirus pandemic.

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Daily Big Picture: Nifty rebounds after a record Fall

Today’s Action

Nifty, +2.5%; Sensex, +2.7%; Nifty Midcap, +1.1%; Nifty Smallcap, -1%; Model Portfolio, 0%

Daily Market Review

Market Pulse : Downtrend

Indian markets rebounded from yesterday’s record fall and closed the volatile trading session above 7,800. 35 out of 50 Nifty stocks closed in the green. Infosys(+12%), Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone(+11.5%), and Britannia Inds.(+10.6%) were the top gainers on Nifty. Today, Nifty breached its yesterday’s low and made a new low of 7,511.1, however, closed in the upper half of the day’s range. So, today’s action qualified as the day one of an attempted rally.

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Daily Big Picture: Lower Circuit for the Second Time in ONE month

Today’s Action

Nifty, -13%; Sensex, -13.2%; Nifty Midcap, -13%; Nifty Smallcap, -12.9%; Model Portfolio, 0%

Daily Market Review

Market Pulse:  Downtrend

Nifty, after a gap down opening, hit 10% lower circuit leading to a trading halt for 45 min. After the trading resumed, the index continued to post unidirectional downward movement and closed near the day’s low with significant losses. All Nifty stocks closed in the red. Axis Bank(-27.6%), Bajaj Finserv(-27.5%), and Indusind Bank (Nse)(-23.9%) were the top three decliners on Nifty. Today, Nifty breached its Friday’s low and made a new low of 7,583.6. So, today’s action led to a reset of follow-through day count for a rally attempt.

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Fundamental Analysis: Is the market forming a new bottom?

The financial collapse of 2007 and the recession that followed left many economists on the defensive. News programs, magazines, pundits, and even Queen of England all asked some variant of questions, why didn’t you see it coming? Some in the economics community wrote articles or convened conferences to examine how they could have gotten it so wrong; others engaged in a full-throated defense of their profession. For many who were hostile to the fundamental assumptions of mainstream economics, the crisis was proof that they had been right all along: the emperor was finally shown to have no clothes. Public confidence in authority was badly shaken.

-Excerpt from the Fault Lines by Raghuram Rajan

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