Nifty Breaches its 50-DMA; Godrej Consumer Surges Post Stellar Q4 Results

Today’s Action

Nifty, -1.0%; Sensex, -1.0%; Nifty Midcap, -0.8%; Nifty Smallcap, -0.6%; Model Portfolio, -0.9%

Market Pulse: Confirmed Uptrend

Distribution Day Count: Three

Nifty opened flat and quickly succumbed to selling pressure and lost over 120 points within the first two hours of trading. The index pared most of its losses as some buying was seen at the lower levels. But as the selling pressure overtook the index again, Nifty closed near the day’s low. The index escaped a distribution day as the volume was slightly lower than yesterday’s.

There was a mixed action on the sectoral front. Nifty PSU Bank (+3.2%), Media (+0.7%), and Auto (+0.2%) closed higher. On the flipside, Nifty Metal (-2.9%) declined the most followed by financial-related stocks especially private banks. The advance-decline ratio was in favor of decliners. Of the 2,258 stocks traded, 910 advanced, 1,023 declined, and the rest remained unchanged.

On a technical perspective, Nifty breached its 50-DMA, which is not a good sign. Without trying to predict and decode stories, we will take what the market gives and continue to monitor unfolding conditions. If the index falls further, adds a distribution day, and breaches its key moving averages, we may change the market status to an  Uptrend Under Pressure. Continue to trim or avoid ideas lagging and/or breaking down below major moving averages.

Key News

Airtel Africa announced its March quarter results. Revenue was up 0.4% y/y to $1,038M. PAT increased 38.9% to $132M.

Godrej consumer product’s shares were up 21.9% as the company reported a 59% jump in its profits for the March quarter.

Vodafone Idea added 6.5 lakh customers in February and expanded its total subscribers to 282.6M. This is the first month of subscriber addition since October 2019. Its market share in wireless subscribers stood at 24.2%. The stock advanced 8.6%.

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SGX Nifty Indicates Muted Opening; Asian Paints and Lupin to Declare Q4 Results Today

At 8:00 am IST, SGX Nifty Futures was trading at 14,833, compared with Nifty’s close of 14,850 yesterday.

Market Pulse: Confirmed Uptrend

Distribution Day Count: Three

Global stock markets: Dow30, -1.4%; S&P 500, -0.9%; Nasdaq, -0.1%; Kospi, -0.8%; Nikkei, -0.7%; Shanghai Composite, +0.1%

Nifty gapped lower yesterday on weak global cues. However, it recovered around 80 points in the opening hour. After a little consolidation, it further moved higher and made a high of 14,900. From there, it reversed and closed around 14,850. As the volume was higher compared with the previous session, we considered it a distribution day.

The positive momentum remained intact in the broader market. Midcap and Smallcap indices outperformed benchmark indices. There was a mixed action on the sectoral front. Nifty PSU Bank (+1.2%), Realty (+0.3%), and Auto (+0.3%) closed higher, while Nifty Private Banks, Financial Services, and Metals closed more than 1% lower. The advance-decline ratio was in favor of advancers. Of the 2,257 stocks traded, 1,162 advanced, 757 declined, and the rest remained unchanged.

Looking forward, without trying to predict and decode stories, we will take what the market gives and continue to monitor unfolding conditions. If the index falls further, adds a distribution day, and breaches its key moving averages, we may change the market status to an Uptrend Under Pressure. Continue to trim or avoid ideas lagging and/or breaking down below major moving averages.

Key Results Today: Asian paints, Lupin (Nse), UPL, Apollo Tyres (Nse),    Tata PowerVaibhav Global and others.

Key News:

Linde India announced Q4 FY21 results yesterday. Revenue rose 16.9% y/y to Rs 441 crore. PAT came in at Rs 303 crore compared with Rs 39 crore in Q4 FY20.

Siemens announced Q4 FY21 results yesterday. Revenue increased 31.9% y/y to Rs 3,483 crore. PAT was up 90% to Rs 334 crore.

Godrej Consumer Product’s Q4 FY21 revenue grew 26.7% y/y to Rs 2,730 crore. PAT was up 59% to Rs 365 crore.

Buy Watchlist: Ramkrishna Forgings, Hindustan Zinc (Nse), PI industries, Relaxo Footwears, Tata power, Gujarat State Petronet, Apollo hosps. enterprise, Eris Lifesciences, Asian paints, Wipro (Nse), Amrutanjan health care , LUX industries, Rain industries, Apollo tricoat tubes, and Balkrishna industries

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Nifty Adds Distribution Day; Broader Market Outperforms

Today’s Action

Nifty, -0.6%; Sensex, -0.7%; Nifty Midcap, +0.8%; Nifty Smallcap, +0.8%; Model Portfolio, -0.1%

Market Pulse: Confirmed Uptrend

Distribution Day Count: Three

Nifty gapped lower on weak global cues. However, it recovered around 80 points in the opening hour. After a little consolidation, it further moved higher and made a high of 14,900. From there, it reversed and closed around 14,850. As the volume was higher compared with yesterday’s session, we will consider it as a distribution day.

The positive momentum remained intact in the broader market. Midcap and Smallcap indices outperformed benchmark indices. There was a mixed action on the sectoral front. Nifty PSU Bank (+1.2%), Realty (+0.3%), and Auto (+0.3%) closed higher, Nifty Private Banks, Financial Services, and Metals closed more than 1% lower. The advance-decline ratio was in favor of advancers. Of the 2,257 stocks traded, 1,162 advanced, 757 declined, and the rest remained unchanged.

Looking forward, without trying to predict and decode stories, we will take what the market gives and continue to monitor unfolding conditions. If the index falls further, adds a distribution day, and breaches its key moving averages, we may change the market status to an Uptrend Under Pressure. Continue to trim or avoid ideas lagging and/or breaking down below major moving averages.

Key News

Granules India announced its March quarter results. Revenue grew 33.2% y/y to Rs 799 crore. PAT increased 38% to Rs 127.7 crore. EBITDA margin expanded 860bps to 25.3%.

Firstsource Solutions Q4 FY21 revenue grew 7% y/y to Rs 1,460 crore. EBITDA grew 10.7% y/y to Rs 231 crore. EBITDA margin expanded 50bps to 15.8%.

-Telangana government announced a 10-day lockdown, starting tomorrow.

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Daily Big Picture:Market Prediction Today as Nifty Stages a Downside Reversal

Today’s Action

Nifty, -4%; Sensex, -4.1%; Nifty Midcap, -2%; Nifty Smallcap, -1.5%; Model Portfolio, 0%

Daily Market Review

Market Pulse: Confirmed Uptrend

Nifty staged a downside reversal closing near the lows but on a lower volume. Nifty Bank and IT saw high selling pressure. Yesterday, volume and percentage gains met our threshold. Hence, we considered it as a follow-through day and upgraded the market to a Confirmed Uptrend. However, we didn’t add any stocks to our portfolio and asked investors to be careful if they take any fresh position as follow-through days after such sharp and dramatic correction can fail and more time should be given to the market to prove its strength.

Continue reading “Daily Big Picture:Market Prediction Today as Nifty Stages a Downside Reversal”