Weekly Big Picture – Benchmark Indices up on all five sessions; Nifty Gain 3.3%

Market Pulse

Confirmed Uptrend

Weekly Action

The Nifty, and the Sensex were up on all five sessions during the week: Nifty, +3.3%; Sensex, +3.5%; Nifty Midcap, +0.9%; Nifty Smallcap, +0.1%; Model Portfolio, -0.2%; and MSI Ind 47, +0.5%.

Weekly Market Review

India’s benchmark indices posted gain on high volume. We had changed market status to Confirmed Uptrend on November 2

The Nifty closed above 200-DMA on Thursday and was able to hold the gains on Friday. The Sensex closed above 36,000 on Thursday for the first time in two months. Nifty IT(+6.3%) was the top gainer this week, followed by Nifty Financial Services (+4%), Nifty FMCG (+3.3%). Only Nifty Metal ,Pharma and PSU Bank were the three sectors in red.

On a monthly basis, FIIs were the net buyer for the first time since March. Lower crude oil prices and stability in the rupee led a positive sentiment among institutional as well as retail investors. The US market has been upgraded to a Confirm Uptrend on Wednesday. Though the Nifty as well the Sensex posted decent gains during the week, the Midcap and Smallcap indices gained marginally and were not able to find leadership.

With respect to direction, the Indian market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The distribution day count stands at two for the Nifty. More distribution days in the upcoming sessions will downgrade market status to an Uptrend Under Pressure. Considering this, we would suggest adopting an investment approach where you begin with a small allocation and increase it as and when market demonstrates technical strength. On the other hand, investors should be prepared to cut their position in case the market starts to show recurring distribution days and technical weakness.

In the coming week, the following events could move the market:

• December 5: RBI Monetary Policy

• December 6: OPEC meeting