Weekly Big Picture – Bulls Raindance after IMT Forecast; Major Indices Reclaim All-time Highs

MarketSmith India _ Weekly Big Picture


Status: Confirmed Uptrend


Four up days, one down day

Weekly Market Review

The benchmark indices recovered sharply after last week’s decline, aided by a good rain forecast and positive global cues. They recorded four consecutive positive sessions, summing up a significant weekly gain. The Sensex and the Nifty scaled fresh all-time highs during this positive run.

The Nifty started at 9,311.45 and added 1.24% by the end of the week. It traded in the wide range of 9,297.95-9,450.65 to close at 9,400.90.

After opening the week at 29,915.12 points, the Sensex posted a similar gain of 1.10%, as it ended the week at 30,188.15. The index traded in the range of 29,877.41-30,366.43.

By the end of this week, the distribution day count on the Nifty and the Sensex was at 3.0 and 5.0, respectively. Today’s high volume down day added another distribution day to the Sensex, while the lower volume on the Nifty helped the index escape another distribution day. However, one distribution day is likely to be dropped in the next two trading sessions. The current market condition is still strong in a Confirmed Uptrend.

Despite a few hiccups, broader markets maintained a good momentum this week. The Nifty Midcap index recovered last week’s losses by adding gains of 1.06% this week, while the Nifty Smallcap index continued its winning streak for the ninth straight week, with a gain of 1.39%.

The William O’Neil IND 47 Index, which lists the top 47 stocks in chart and fundamental characteristics, gained 1.36% this week.

On the sectoral front, all the indices barring Nifty PSU Bank ended higher. Nifty PSU Bank index posted a loss of 0.65% this week. The top three weekly performers were Nifty Realty, Auto and Media indices, with increments of 5.71%, 3.18%, and 2.92%, respectively.

Looking back at the market action this week, the key indices started on a positive note, tracking strength from global markets after a thumping victory for Emmanuel Macron in the French Presidential elections.

Following a good day, markets traded flat in Tuesday’s trading session due to lack of domestic or global cues. It was a largely a quiet day with poor trading volumes. S Chand & Co successfully debuted at the bourses with a 3% premium on the day of listing.

The major move of the week came on Wednesday when benchmark indices surged about 1% each, marking fresh all-time highs. Indian Meteorological Department’s forecast of a normal rainfall for 2017 boosted investor sentiments.

On Thursday, benchmark indices extended their all-time highs right at the start of the session. However, as the session drew closer towards the end, the indices gave up all intraday gains to close flat, likely due to profit booking.

In the only down day of the week, key composites experienced negative market breadth today. After starting in the positive territory, the indices quickly declined into the negative territory. However, frontline indices recovered well to close above the intraday lows.

The following events could serve as a market mover in the coming weeks:

  • WPI Inflation data for April 2017: May 15, 2017
  • Q4 FY 2017 earnings results for Colgate, JK Tyre, Kajaria Ceramic, Vedanta, Grasim, JK Paper, Tata Steel, Whirlpool, HUL, Bajaj Auto, CESC, Pidilite Ind, VIP Industries, and Motherson Sumi, among others.

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