Weekly Big Picture – Market Snaps Four-Week Losing Streak



Rally Attempt


One down and two up days

Weekly Market Review:

The final week of the financial year brought smiles to investors, as frontline indices snapped out of their four-week long losing streak.

The three-day trading week kicked off with solid gains for major indices, as late-session buying helped the Nifty and the Sensex to close above the levels of 10K and 33K, respectively, on Monday.

As fears of a trade war between the U.S. and China receded, benchmark indices managed to bring home decent gains on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, key indices retreated from their bullish trend to close lower on account of weak global cues.

In a topsy-turvy week, key indices managed to clock decent gains of 1.1-1.2%.

Broader market surmounted benchmark indices, as the Nifty Midcap and Smallcap indices surged 1.5% and 1.4%, respectively.

From the sectoral point of view, most of the sectors ended in a positive territory barring Nifty Energy (-0.3%) and Nifty IT (-0.03%). The top performers were Nifty Bank (+2.7%), Financial Services (+2.4%) and Media (+2.3%).

MarketSmith India’s IND 47 index, our proprietary list of top 47 stocks in chart and fundamental characteristics, advanced 0.7% this week.

On the economic front, India’s fiscal deficit for the April-February period ballooned to Rs 7.16 lakh crore, which is 120% of the revised target for FY 2018.

We changed the market status to Rally Attempt today, after key indices were able to hold above their previous lows (of March 23). We would prefer to see a follow through day before shifting the market status to Confirmed Uptrend. On the flip side, if the Nifty breaches its March 23 low, the market status will be moved back to a Downtrend.

The Indian stock market will remain closed on March 29 (Thursday) and March 30 (Friday) on account of Mahavir Jayanti and Good Friday.

Following events lined up for the coming week, could turn out to be market movers:

  • Monthly Automobile Sales Data for March 2018: April 1, 2018
  • Nikkei Manufacturing PMI Data: April 2, 2018
  • Nikkei Services PMI Data: April 4, 2018
  • RBI Monetary policy meet: April 5, 2018

Current Outlook:

– Keep a watch list of growth stocks ready

– Wait for the market to follow through or strong price action in leading stocks before acquiring new positions.

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