How to Read the Market Direction?

It is often said, “Only when the tide goes out, do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”

When markets come under pressure, a strict sell-rule is what can protect you from emotional and financial stress. Often, when the market is in a correction, three out of four stocks follow the market direction. Investors often believe they are right in their research and approach and cling on to a stock, even if the markets turn the tide. Selling is the key factor that determines a successful investor from others. If a sell-rule is in place, it provides a clear framework for avoiding biases and emotions to creep into your investing. With the Indian market in a correction, do not hesitate to sell away stocks that breach your sell rules. You simply cannot afford to have a love affair with a stock as it could become an extremely expensive affair.

Post a correction in the markets, a Rally Attempt begins after the markets cool off, and the index trades above the recent bottom for at least three consecutive sessions. A Follow-Through Day is a solid up session, generally a 1.5% or higher gain, with volume being higher than the previous day. A follow-through session officially opens the buying season for leading stocks. Leaders often second the Rally’s confirmation by breaking out of bases near the Follow-Through Day. A Distribution Day is a weak day in the market, when the index closes on higher volume by 0.2% or more. The number of distribution days in the market can be used to gauge the strength in the market

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SGX Nifty Indicates Higher Opening; Action Construction Equipment and IPCA Labs to Report Results Today

At 8:00 am IST, SGX Nifty Futures was trading at 15,460, compared with Nifty close of 15,338 yesterday.

Market Pulse: Confirmed Uptrend


Distribution Day Count: Three

Global stock markets: Dow30, +0.4%; S&P 500, +0.1%; Nasdaq, -0.01%; Kospi, +0.7%; Nikkei, +2%; Shanghai Composite, -0.1%

Yesterday, Nifty opened muted but gained strength during the session and moved above 15,350. The volatility was high due to monthly F&O expiry. After moving to and fro, Nifty closed 0.2% higher. Volume was comparatively high. Nifty is now less than 100 points below its all-time high. Broader market indices outperformed benchmark indices. Barring Nifty Realty (-1.2%) and Pharma (-0.2%), all other sectoral indices closed in the green. Nifty PSU Bank closed 2.8% higher. Nifty IT (1.2%) continues positive momentum after leading stocks like TCS and Infosys reclaimed their 50-DMA yesterday. The advance-decline ratio was in favor of advancers. Of the 2,259 stocks traded, 1,024 advanced, 893 declined, and the rest remained unchanged. Nifty is trading 3% and 4% above its 21- and 50-DMA, respectively.

Last week, Nifty retook its 50-DMA, did not add a distribution day, and registered an additional follow-through day, which are positive signs. We would like the index to hold its 50-DMA and trade above that. Without trying to predict and decode stories, we will take what the market gives and continue to monitor unfolding conditions. If the index falls further, adds a distribution day, and breaches its key moving averages, we may change the market status to an Uptrend Under Pressure. Focus on quality ideas emerging out of sound bases with relative strength line at or near new highs while reducing exposure to stocks breaking below key support levels.

Key Results Today: Action construction Equ Nesco, Ipca Laboratories (Nse), Deepak Fert & Petrochem, and others.

Key News:

Sun Pharm Industries reported its Q4 FY21 results. Revenue was up 4.1% y/y to Rs 8,523 crore. PAT surged more than 2x to Rs 894.1 crore.

Metropolis Healthcare reported its Q4 FY21 results. Revenue was up 40.9% y/y to Rs 291.7 crore. PAT surged almost 4x to Rs 61.3 crore.

Eicher Motors reported its Q4 FY21 results. Revenue was up 33.2% y/y to Rs 2,940.33 crore. PAT advanced 60.9% y/y to Rs 526.1 crore.

Buy Watchlist: Page Industries, Action Construction Equ.State Bank Of IndiaAmbuja CementsEveready Inds.(India)Varun BeveragesColgate-Palmolive IndiaSharda CropchemAstralI G PetrochemicalsBerger Paints IndiaIcici BankRamkrishna ForgingsGujarat State PetronetApollo Hosps.Enterprise,  and Apollo Tricoat Tubes

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Today’s Action

Nifty, +0.2%; Sensex, +0.2%; Nifty Midcap, +0.5%; Nifty Smallcap, +1%; Model Portfolio, +0.8%

Market Pulse: Confirmed Uptrend

Distribution Day Count: Three

Nifty after a muted opening, gained strength and moved above 15,350. The volatility was high due to monthly F&O expiry. After moving to and fro, Nifty closed 0.2% higher. Volume was comparatively high. Nifty is now less than 100 points below its all-time high. Broader market indices outperformed benchmark indices. Barring Nifty Realty (-1.2%) and Pharma (-0.2%), all other sectoral indices closed in the green. Nifty PSU Bank closed 2.8% higher. Nifty IT (1.2%) continues positive momentum after leading stocks like TCS and Infosys reclaimed its 50-DMA yesterday. The advance-decline ratio was in favor of advancers. Of the 2,259 stocks traded, 1,024 advanced, 893 declined, and the rest remained unchanged. Nifty is trading 3% and 4% above its 21- and 50-DMA, respectively.

Last week, Nifty registered an additional follow-through day and hasn’t added any distribution day after May 11. These are positive signs for a sustainable rally. We would like the index to hold its 50-DMA and trade above that. Without trying to predict and decode stories, we will take what the market gives and continue to monitor unfolding conditions. If the index falls further, adds a distribution day, and breaches its key moving averages, we may change the market status to an Uptend Under Pressure. Focus on quality ideas emerging out of sound bases with RS line at or near new highs while reducing exposure to stocks breaking below key support levels.

Key News

Alkyl Amines Chemicals’s Q4 FY21 revenue grew 62.8% y/y to Rs 382 crore. PAT up 88% y/y to Rs 92.6 crore. Margin expanded 640bps to 34.9%.

Cadila Healthcare announced its Q4 FY21 results. Revenue came in line with estimates, while PAT and margin beat estimates. Revenue grew 2.5% y/y to Rs 3,846 crore. PAT grew 73.6% y/y to Rs 649 crore. Margin expanded 110bps to 22.2%.

Page Industries’s Q4 FY21 revenue grew 63% y/y to Rs 881 crore. PAT came in at Rs 115.6 crore compared with Rs 31 crore in Q4 FY20. Margin expanded 860bps to 19.3%.

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Today’s Action

Nifty, +0.6%; Sensex, +0.8%; Nifty Midcap, +0.1%; Nifty Smallcap, +0.6%; Model Portfolio, -0.3%

Market Pulse: Confirmed Uptrend

Distribution Day Count: Three

Nifty gapped higher this morning but remained volatile in the opening hour. It gradually moved higher as the day progressed and closed above 15,300. Volume was comparatively low. Nifty is now less than 1% below its all-time high. Sensex also crossed the 51,000 mark and closed above that. Broader market indices underperformed benchmark indices. Barring Nifty Metal (-1.8%) and Nifty PSU Bank(-0.3%), all other sectoral indices closed in the green. Nifty Realty closed 2.8% higher. After many days of muted action, Nifty IT (1.8%) led the gains today. Nifty Auto, FMCG, Pharma, and Financial Service closed 0.1–0.5% higher. The advance-decline ratio was in favor of advancers. Of the 2,259 stocks traded, 1,223 advanced, 711 declined, and the rest remained unchanged. Nifty is trading 3% and 3.8% above its 21- and 50-DMA, respectively.

Last week, Nifty registered an additional follow-through day and hasn’t added any distribution day after May 11. These are positive signs for a sustainable rally. We would like the index to hold its 50-DMA and trade above that. Without trying to predict and decode stories, we will take what the market gives and continue to monitor unfolding conditions. If the index falls further, adds a distribution day, and breaches its key moving averages, we may change the market status to an Uptend Under Pressure. Focus on quality ideas emerging out of sound bases with RS line at or near new highs while reducing exposure to stocks breaking below key support levels.

Key News

V-Guard Industries’s Q4 FY21 revenue grew 57.7% y/y to Rs 858 crore. PAT doubled y/y to Rs 67.8 crore. Margin expanded 420bps to 13.2%.

Hindustan Foods announced its Q4 FY21 results. Revenue grew 95% y/y to Rs 482.3 crore. PAT grew 54% y/y to Rs 10.8 crore. Margin contracted 160bps to 18%.

Sharda Cropchem’s Q4 FY21 revenue grew 24% y/y to Rs 1,088 crore. PAT came in at Rs 134 crore, down 5.5% y/y to. Margin expanded 10bps to 18.7%.

L T Foods’s Q4 FY21 revenue declined 5.8% y/y to Rs 1,129 crore. PAT grew 4.4% y/y to Rs 56.3 crore. Margin contracted 30bps to 10.7%.

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SGX Nifty Indicates Higher Opening; Berger Paints and Hindustan Foods to Report Results Today

At 8:00 am IST, SGX Nifty Futures was trading at 15,264, compared with Nifty close of 15,208 yesterday.

Market Pulse: Confirmed Uptrend

Distribution Day Count: Three

Global stock markets: Dow30, -0.2%; S&P 500, -0.2%; Nasdaq, -0.03%; Kospi, -0.2%; Nikkei, +0.1%; Shanghai Composite, +0.5%

Yesterday, Nifty gapped higher but gradually moved lower as the day progressed. In the last hour, Nifty recovered from the day’s low and managed to close in the green. Volume was lower compared with the last few sessions. Banking and Financial-related stocks underperformed (HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, IndusInd Bank, and HDFC were down 0.5–2.0%). All other sectors closed in positive territory. Nifty Pharma, FMCG, Realty, IT, and Auto closed 0.2–0.7% higher. Nifty Bank and Financial Services closed almost 1% lower. The advance-decline ratio was in favor of advancers. Of the 2,263 stocks traded, 1,040 advanced, 874 declined, and the rest remained unchanged. Nifty is trading 2.5% and 3.0% above its 21- and 50-DMA, respectively.

Last week, Nifty retook its 50-DMA, did not add a distribution day, and registered an additional follow-through day, which are positive signs. We would like the index to hold its 50-DMA and trade above that. Without trying to predict and decode stories, we will take what the market gives and continue to monitor unfolding conditions. If the index falls further, adds a distribution day, and breaches its key moving averages, we may change the market status to an Uptrend Under Pressure. Focus on quality ideas emerging out of sound bases with relative strength line at or near new highs while reducing exposure to stocks breaking below key support levels.

Key Results Today: Berger Paints IndiaHindustan Foods, Pfizer (Nse)  , Cummins India (Nse), and others.

Key News:

Godawari Power & Ispat reported its Q4 FY21 results. Revenue was up 60% y/y to Rs 1,262 crore. Margins improved to 38.8%. Finance cost was down 44% y/y to Rs 27.6 crore.

Aia Engineering recommended a final dividend of Rs 9 per equity share.

Bodal Chemicals incorporated a wholly-owned subsidiary in Indonesia.

Stocks on the move on 25.05.2021

Up in price

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Buy Watchlist: Action Construction Equ.State Bank Of IndiaAmbuja CementsEveready Inds.(India)Varun BeveragesColgate-Palmolive IndiaSharda CropchemAstralI G PetrochemicalsBerger Paints IndiaIcici BankRamkrishna ForgingsGujarat State PetronetApollo Hosps.Enterprise,  and Apollo Tricoat Tubes
 
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