Weekly Big Picture – Bulls Turn Imperious Ahead Of Karnataka Elections

MARKET PULSE:

Confirmed Uptrend

Highlights:

One down and four up days

Weekly Market Review:

The bulls took complete control over the bourses, helping major indices to recover from their previous week’s losses.

Despite concerns of rising crude oil prices, increase in U.S. bond yields and political tensions in the Middle East, investor sentiment remained buoyant throughout the week.

The week began on a robust note on Monday, as worries of a global trade war eased out. Both the Nifty and Sensex reconquered their psychological levels of 10,700 and 35,000, respectively.

But, as frontline indices looked set to charge ahead, Donald Trump’s decision to pull out of the Iran deal made investors jittery. Volatility loomed over the bourses on Tuesday, as frontline indices ended flat.

On expected lines, crude oil jumped to a high of $70 per barrel, following Trump’s Iran decision. However, the major indices paid no heed to oil price increase and posted decent gains on Wednesday.

Thursday’s session was marred by profit booking, as India’s frontline indices gave away early gains and snapped a three-day winning streak.

After taking a day’s breather, bulls made a strong comeback on Friday. Both the key indices rose 0.8% each, taking the weekly gain to 1.8%, the best weekly performance in a month.

Broader indices failed to mimic their frontline counterparts, as the week turned out to be a forgettable one. Both Nifty Midcap and Smallcap tumbled 1.1%, with the smallcap benchmark closing below its 50-DMA.

Talking about sectoral action, most of the sector indices did well, barring Nifty Pharma (-4.2%), Media (-0.4%) and Realty (-0.2%). Among the gainers, the top three performers were Nifty Bank (+3%), Energy (+3%) and Financial Services (+2.4%).

MarketSmith India’s IND 47 index, our proprietary list of top 47 stocks in chart and fundamental characteristics, dropped 0.4% this week.

With the distribution day count staying unmoved at two on Nifty and one on Sensex and both the frontline indices trading well-above their key support of 50- and 200-day lines, the Indian market condition remains unchanged at a Confirmed Uptrend.

In the coming week, the following events could serve as market movers:

  • Q4 FY 2018 financial results for Ashok LeylandBlue StarHindalco IndustriesLupinReliance Communications, and Shakti Pumps India

  • CPI and WPI Inflation for April 2018: May 14, 2018

  • Karnataka State Election Results: May 15, 2018

    Current Outlook:

    – Market environment conducive for purchases, but remain selective.

    – Focus on fundamentally strong stocks breaking out of strong technical patterns.

    – Stay disciplined and exercise sound buy and sell rules.

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